The long dark tea time of the soul

The election results of Nepal came as a surprise to almost everybody, including the maoists of Nepal who won more than 50% of seats. Although the reason behind their remarkable performance and how they will behave in power is left to much speculation among the experts, we can make a good guess of at least some aspects of a future Nepalese society. That the monarchy will be done away with is a foregone conclusion. Also the fact that the maoists will pursue Mao’s ideological goals, probably with a human touch, particularly with regards to land reforms and nationalization of resources. The relationship with India will also be overhauled, where both countries deal with each other on equal terms. There are apprehensions about how the feudal class of Nepal react to their loss of power, and there indeed is a very real danger of ideological deviation by CPN(Maoist). One can only hope that the new communist rulers of Nepal not commit the same kind of mistakes as some of their ideologues of 20th century, particularly with respect to establishment of one party state, intraparty democracy and the cult of personality. From the signs of it, and extrapolating from the public comments by CPN(M) leaders during the interim period, we can all be optimistic about Nepal’s future.

Where does that leave their ideological kins in India, particularly the CPI(Maoist). Will they take the lead from their nepalese counterparts, give up arms and join active democratic politics? Many mainstream politicians from India have already appealed to them to do so. Or, now with a friendly government in the neighborhood, the Indian maoists will renew their armed offensive on the Indian state with added vigour? What will be the shape of CCOMPOSA, the amalgamation of extreme left revolutionary parties of south asia? Can the CPN(Maoist) be bold or capable enough to support the insurgents in India, given the fact that the Indian state regards the maoists as a virus, as the gravest threat to internal security? In the absence of any communication from the CPI(Maoist) and with their mouthpiece People’s March being banned, we can all make a guess. What makes it more complicated is the recent setbacks that the movement has suffered. With at least three of its central committee members including the spokesperson Com. Azad killed in police “encounters” within past few months, and many of its senior leaders arrested and safe havens busted, information will be more difficult to come by. CPI(Maoist) will be extra cautious particularly in its interaction with the media. In the following days, we might see a press release from the party, detailing their reaction to the Nepal situation, but that will take some time.

Although the class and caste dynamics remain the same in both India and Nepal, the objective conditions are very different in both countries. Unlike Nepal, India is a very large country, with a very strong army. The state and the economy are firmly ingrained with the global capitalism, and their is a very active and vocal middle class have over the past two decades tied their interest to the success of its ruling capitalist class. The mass perception of India as a democratic state, however flawed, has acted as a safety valve to the anger and resentment of the oppressed classes. The illusion of a free media and activist judiciary further dampens any kind of revolutionary spirit. Most importantly, the politics of masses ensure that the state maintains a socialist face. At least once every five years, the government is forced to react to the most pressing people’s issues. Even the reactionary party like BJP is forced to cherish social programs like NREGA. And while at the time of their return to peace, CPN(M) was controlling more than 53% of the country with massive popular support, CPI(maoist), regardless of what the defence hawks say, have a dominant presence only in few of the Indian states. Again these gains are temporary, and the moment these regions form part of imperial designs as in South Bastar of Chhattisgarh, the Indian state is capable of destroying them using tremendous force. All these factors combined with the very basic difference between the nature of the two parties, ensures that their can’t be any objective parallels between Indian and Nepalese situations.

Unlike CPN(maoist) which is highly centralized chiefly woven around Prachanda, all decisions in CPI(maiost) is taken on the basis of collective leadership. Even a obligatory letter to the media from the chairman, needs to reviewed and acquiesced by a majority of the politburo. CPI(maoist) derives its strength from dogmatic perusal of ideological positions, widely following Marx, Lenin, Stalin and Mao, and to a large extent from its own experience and that of the fellow ultra-left parties in past forty years of struggle. In that respect, it is lot less pragmatic than the CPN(Maoist), which has barely existed for a decade and half. The indian maoists have faced much bitter persecution at the hands of the state right from its inception. From the original spark at Naxalbari, to the death of its founder Charu Mazumdar, to massive crackdown during emergency, the maoists have reasons enough not to trust the state and the reactionary ruling classes. That was their reaction to the Nepal peace process of 2006. In an interview, a couple of months after the maoists joined the government there, spokesperson of CPI(maoist) Com. Azad writes,

One may bring some reforms from above and satisfy certain deprived sections of the people but it will never solve the basic problems of the people as you cannot smash feudalism and throw out imperialism from the soil of Nepal by utilizing the old state whatever embellishments one might do to give it a refurbished image. Nothing short of a revolutionary upheaval of the masses can achieve the above objective.

…. One cannot rule out the possibility of the reactionary ruling classes carrying out a coup and reestablishing their monopoly over political power at an opportune moment when the revolutionary forces have been effectively disarmed or weakened. ….. But, of course, if the Maoists do not pose a threat to the interests of imperialism and the comprador bureaucratic bourgeois (CBB) and they get accommodated and incorporated into the system then they too would be received with warmth by the ruling classes.

Clearly dismissing any chance of Indian maoists participating in multiparty democractic elections and giving up arms, he goes on to say that,

The problem with the theorization by the CPN(Maoist) lies in making the fight against autocracy into a sub-stage of NDR and, a tendency to make the sub-stage overwhelm (dominate and determine) the very direction and path of the revolution. The programme and strategy of NDR drawn up by the Party prior to its launching of the armed struggle, its targets to be overthrown, and even the concrete class analysis made earlier based on which the revolution had advanced so far, are now made subordinate to the needs of the so-called sub-stage of Nepalese revolution

Comrade Azad went on detailing his party’s vision with regards to the nature of society after the “seizure of power”. This vision was further elaborated in his article published in EPW, May 31 2006 edition and a couple of communications from Com. Ganapathy.  Their party was never against participating in elections as a matter of principle, or to provide tactical support to ideological brothers. What it is worried about is either brutal repression by a reactionary state, and/or an eventual dilution of its strictly left ideologies as a fallout of participating in elections. And they have enough empirical historical data to be apprehensive. There is little indication that the views of the party have undergone any change after the Nepal elections. What we need to understand is that CPI(maoist)’s call for armed struggle comes from deeply deliberated theories of Marxism-Leninism-Maoism. To say that a mere election victory in a neighboring country will lead them to abandon the path of protracted people’s war is being unwittingly naive. However there is a welcome chance that Indian maoists will make more and more use of the legal, overground and mass mobilization to achieve their aims. But a war against the state will always remain its central agenda.

The only thing that can lead to any kind of rethinking is if the CPN(maoist) in power is able to implement its ultra-left programs. But then, that will anger a lot of people, including the governments of India and China. These are indeed interesting times in India and Nepal.